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Secular and Cyclical Trends

Executive Summary

  • The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends.

  • Secular trends are slow-moving and are impacted most closely by demographics and debt.

  • Cyclical trends are the 6-18 month fluctuations in growth that occur on top of the secular trends.

  • Asset prices respond very closely to the cyclical trends in economic growth.

  • The EPB Secular & Cyclical Framework monitors both of these critical trends and details the probable path forward for asset prices.

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