Secular and Cyclical Trends
The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends.
Secular trends are slow-moving and are impacted most closely by demographics and debt.
Cyclical trends are the 6-18 month fluctuations in growth that occur on top of the secular trends.
Asset prices respond very closely to the cyclical trends in economic growth.
The EPB Secular & Cyclical Framework monitors both of these critical trends and details the probable path forward for asset prices.