China is Preparing for War. What Should You Do About it.
This article is a high level overview of our market research. It will be updated from time to time. “The historical task of the complete...
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Fred Dionne
- Aug 25
- 1 min
Have Businesses Reached Peak Profit Margins?
Without the consistent expansion of margins, US equities would be 40% lower than they are today. The 2019 paper from Bridgewater argues...
Fred Dionne
- Jul 15
- 1 min
Passive Investors should be VERY Worried
What’s your best estimate of Equity Risk Premium (ERP) for the SP500 over the next decades? 10%? 5%? In this must-read paper, Hussman...
Fred Dionne
- Jul 14
- 1 min
The End of an Era
This research paper is about the (slow) end of the most spectacular bull market in history. Don't get me wrong, we are still in a very...
Fred Dionne
- Jul 3
- 1 min
Momentum leads everything
Momentum leads price, which leads fundamentals (macro). As the above chart shows, macro indicators are extremely lagging ones. In the...
Fred Dionne
- Jun 14
- 3 min
The most Efficient Toolkit for Liquidating Government Debt is the Financial Repression Tax
In 2015, the IMF published a working paper with an overview of financial repression that was implemented during the last century to...
Fred Dionne
- Mar 23
- 2 min
The Systemic Bug : Bank runs can now happen at the speed of light.
Today March 22, 2023 the Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 25 bsp, in line with consensus. It ignored, however, certain claims...
Fred Dionne
- Feb 25
- 1 min
Mind The Profile
It's too easy to get entrenched in a bull or bear mindset. What if you should remain neutral? Do you see further price rotations in a...
Fred Dionne
- Jan 16
- 1 min
Macro Traders vs Tech Equity Guys
The dismal scientists vs the Optimists, the sceptics vs dreamers, risk managers vs all-iners ... watch below :
Fred Dionne
- Dec 12, 2022
- 1 min
$350 billion blow to Retail Investors
Investment portfolios belonging to retail traders suffered a $350 billion blow this year as big bets on risky stocks and former...
Fred Dionne
- Dec 5, 2022
- 1 min
Could a Rise in U.S. Dollars Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis?
The Bank of International Settlement just released a shocking report on $80 trillion-plus in outstanding obligations (unrecorded on...
Fred Dionne
- Nov 14, 2022
- 1 min
Lessons From Volcker's Inflation Fight
Volcker is remembered today as having the courage to run tight enough policy to break the back of inflation. That is a far too simple...
Fred Dionne
- Nov 2, 2022
- 1 min
Near the War Stage - Ray Dalio
Was the war in Ukraine just the warning sign? Dalio: To be clear, when I say that I believe we are on the brink of civil and/or...
Fred Dionne
- Oct 27, 2022
- 1 min
Secular and Cyclical Trends
Executive Summary The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends. Secular trends are slow-moving and are...
Fred Dionne
- Oct 25, 2022
- 1 min
"This is a Quantum Shift"
Famous macro economist Muriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, talks about his new book and reviews the systemic risks...
Fred Dionne
- Oct 24, 2022
- 1 min
The Impact of the Great China Deleveraging
Over time, we expect a significant macroeconomic impact from China's commitment to financial deleveraging. First, for a large economy...
Fred Dionne
- Oct 24, 2022
- 1 min
Troubles Ahead for the 60-40 Portfolio
"It is pertinent to note that since 1984, markets have spent 65% of their time pricing in falling inflation— an environment beneficial to...
Fred Dionne
- Oct 14, 2022
- 1 min
Preparing for Stagflation
In this post, Prometheus Research highlights key data on expected rates of returns in regimes of inflation and stagflation. A must read....
Fred Dionne
- Oct 14, 2022
- 1 min
Dalio's Bible on Big Macro Cycles
This is THE paper of reference to understand Big Debt Cycles and boom and bust cycles. Famous Bridgewater founder, Ray Dalio, has written...
Fred Dionne
- Oct 14, 2022
- 1 min
Raoul Pal Explains his Macro Framework
Raoul Pal from RealVision explains his own Macro Framework with a lot of history to look at.
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